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Systems of predictive regressions

Source: vignettes/ivx-sys.Rmd
ivx-sys.Rmd

ivx_sys() estimates several predictive regressions jointly — for instance the returns on a set of pricing factors on the same predictors, the empirical setting of Kostakis, Magdalinos & Stamatogiannis (2023) — and tests restrictions across equations with a single IVX-Wald statistic.

Model and statistic

\[ y_t = \mu + A\, x_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t, \qquad y_t \in \mathbb{R}^m, \; x_t \in \mathbb{R}^r, \]

with the predictors as in vignette("ivx") and \(\varepsilon_t\) a vector martingale difference with covariance \(\Sigma\). The IVX estimator of the \(m \times r\) matrix \(A\) (KMS 2023, eq. 15) is

\[ \tilde A_K = Y(K)' Z \,\big[ X(K)' Z \big]^{-1}, \]

and the covariance of \(\mathrm{vec}(\tilde A_K)\) has the Kronecker form of eq. (23),

\[ \tilde Q_K = \big[ (Z'X(K))^{-1} \otimes I_m \big]\, M_K\, \big[ (X(K)'Z)^{-1} \otimes I_m \big], \qquad M_K = Z(K)'Z(K) \otimes \hat\Sigma \;-\; n_K\, \bar z(K)\bar z(K)' \otimes \hat\Sigma_{FM}, \]

where \(\hat\Sigma\) is the covariance of the one-step OLS residuals and \(\hat\Sigma_{FM} = \hat\Sigma - \hat\Omega_{\varepsilon v}' \hat\Omega_{vv}^{-1} \hat\Omega_{\varepsilon v}\) its long-run-corrected analogue. For \(H \mathrm{vec}(A) = h\),

\[ W = \big(H\mathrm{vec}(\tilde A_K) - h\big)' \big[H \tilde Q_K H'\big]^{-1} \big(H\mathrm{vec}(\tilde A_K) - h\big) \;\to\; \chi^2_{\mathrm{rank}(H)} . \]

ivx_sys() reports the joint test of \(A = 0\) (\(mr\) degrees of freedom), one test per equation (\(r\) degrees of freedom) and one per coefficient. For \(m = 1\) every number equals the output of ivx(), at any horizon.

s <- ivx_sys(cbind(Ret, DE) ~ DP + TBL, data = kms)
s
#> 
#> Call:
#> ivx_sys(formula = cbind(Ret, DE) ~ DP + TBL, data = kms, horizon = 1)
#> 
#> Coefficients (responses in rows):
#>      DP         TBL      
#> Ret   0.006145  -0.080717
#> DE    0.311083  -4.014921
summary(s)
#> 
#> Call:
#> ivx_sys(formula = cbind(Ret, DE) ~ DP + TBL, data = kms, horizon = 1)
#> 
#> Coefficients:
#>          Estimate Std. Error t value Wald Ind Pr(> chi)    
#> Ret:DP   0.006145   0.004557   1.349    1.819     0.177    
#> DE:DP    0.311083   0.019396  16.039  257.244    <2e-16 ***
#> Ret:TBL -0.080717   0.057701  -1.399    1.957     0.162    
#> DE:TBL  -4.014921   0.277468 -14.470  209.377    <2e-16 ***
#> ---
#> Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
#> 
#> Equation Wald statistics on 2 DF:
#>      Wald p-value
#> Ret 3.644  0.1617
#> DE    488  <2e-16
#> 
#> Joint Wald statistic:  493.9 on 4 DF, p-value < 2.2e-16

Long horizons work as for ivx():

s12 <- ivx_sys(cbind(Ret, DE) ~ DP + TBL, data = kms, horizon = 12)
s12$Wald_Eq
#>        Ret         DE 
#>   3.998219 423.475294

vcov() returns the \(mr \times mr\) matrix of \(\mathrm{vec}(A)\), column-major (all responses for the first predictor, then the second, …), with names response:predictor; custom restrictions can be tested from it directly.

V <- vcov(s)
a <- as.vector(coef(s))
names(a) <- rownames(V)
# is the effect of DP the same in both equations?
H <- matrix(c(1, -1, 0, 0), 1)
drop(t(H %*% a) %*% solve(H %*% V %*% t(H)) %*% (H %*% a))
#> [1] 233.1596

Validation

  • For one response, ivx_sys() reproduces ivx() exactly (tested for horizons 1 and 4), and the first equation’s Wald statistic in a system equals the univariate joint Wald statistic.
  • Monte Carlo with two responses, a unit-root predictor and endogeneity correlations \(-0.95\) and \(0.5\), \(n = 500\): empirical size of the joint 5% test 4.4%, of the equation tests 5.6% and 5.0%.

Caveats

  • The example uses DE as a second response only to illustrate the syntax; the theory assumes stationary responses.
  • All equations share the same predictors and the same instrument; equation specific regressors are not supported.
  • No Eicker–White option, no bootstrap and no ivx_ar/ivx_ra counterpart for systems.

References

  • Kostakis, A., Magdalinos, T., & Stamatogiannis, M. P. (2023). Taking stock of long-horizon predictability tests: Are factor returns predictable? Journal of Econometrics, 237(2), 105380.
  • Magdalinos, T. (2022). Least squares and IVX limit theory in systems of predictive regressions with GARCH innovations. Econometric Theory, 38(5), 875–912.